The Window & Door Manufacturers Association (WDMA) has released its 2021 U.S. Window and Door Industry Market Study. The report provides data into the factors influencing the industry market, as well as insights on industry’s product trends and future direction after the COVID-19 pandemic. The report was conducted on extensive industry research and analysis by the Farnsworth Group.
In order to get a comprehensive understanding of the state of our industry today, the research is based on surveys to retailers, contractors, homeowners and professional end users – home builders, remodelers and door installers.
Macro Drivers
Macro drivers are influential fiscal, natural or geopolitical variables that affect the economy.
The study indicates an increase in household income and housing affordability, which are currently driving and will continue to drive new home demand. Mortgage rates continue to stay a record low level helping affordability and confidence. As the market begins to open up and unemployment runs out, the research shows existing sales are on track for the best year since 2006. An expected increase in supply this summer could fuel even more sales.
Attitudinal Drivers
The Farnsworth Group accounted for confidence as the main driver, and analyzed this metric amongst consumers, builders and contractors.
As the pandemic hit in 2020, consumer confidence began to decline in March. In May of 2020 it dipped to levels not seen in nearly a decade, with an index of 86, nearing the terrifying index (75) recorded back in September of 2001 after the terrorist attacks. Thankfully, the indicator recovered in late 2020 and surged to a positive 122 this April 2021.
Builder confidence rates the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. An index of 50 represents a favorable outlook on home sales. This number stands at 83 as of April of 2021, indicating that builders are bullish on the future.
Contractor confidence has not returned to pre-pandemic level, but it continues to recover from the shutdown just over one year ago.
These findings reveal a number of interesting insights on what the future may hold for the window and door markets.
Windows
Even with the pandemic shutting down the economy for nearly two months straight in the spring of 2020, pent up demand in the back half of 2019 meant that shipments of residential windows grew 0.9% to 2020. As manufacturing and labor continue to pick up, shipments are expected to increase significantly in 2021, before slowing in 2022 and 2023.
Patio Doors
As people started to work from home more often in 2020, they began wanting to open their doors and let the fresh air in. With that demand, shipments of sliding patio doors grow by 7.3% over 2019 on the national level. Growth for 2021 is predicted to increase significantly again.
Because hinged patio doors typically have a higher price point than sliding doors, there was a decline in hinged patio door shipments in 2020 with a 4.9% decrease compared to 2019. However, with more new home built and the market opening back up, shipments are expected to increase.
Residential Entry Doors
Shipments of entry doors increased 4.3% in 2020, and they are expected to continue to increase as new homes are built and remodeling projects increase. The study discloses a forecasted growth rate of 5.3% in 2021.
Architectural Doors
Shipments of architectural interior flush door declined in 2020 by nearly 10% from 2019. The demand of these doors is however expected to increase somewhat in 2021 and 2022, but it will take until beyond 2023 before getting back to 2019 numbers in the commercial space.
Unlike architectural doors, the demand for architectural interior stile and rail doors increased in 2.9% 2020. Shipments are expected to increase significantly in both 2022 and 2023.
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